Texas Housing Market Predictions and Insights
Navigating the ever-vibrant Texas housing market is like riding a rodeo bull – unpredictable but thrilling! As we drive further into 2024, understanding the intricate dance of property prices, inventory availability, and the pace of new developments is crucial for any real estate real estate agent in Texas. Saddle up! Be Happy TC is ready to reveal our Texas housing market predictions for 2024 based on current housing market insights to help our Texas real estate agents strategize your year with confidence.
The Lone Star State currently boasts a diverse range of property prices, reflecting its vast geographical and cultural landscape but will market inventory availability continue to be a mixed bag? We’ll dig deeper to help you understand where certain areas may experiencing a shortage - driving prices up and where new property developments are sprouting up, aiming to meet the growing demand.
Texas Housing Market Insights
Let’s start with interest rates - the secret sauce that people believe can make or break the housing market! In Texas, the impact of interest rates hasn’t gone unnoticed. Higher rates have cooled down some of the frenzies in the major markets, making properties slightly more accessible for buyers who were previously outbid. However, this also means a tighter rope for those looking to finance their homes. In the major cities, we’re seeing a gradual stabilization of prices, but the market is still very competitive across the state - even in areas where home prices are declining:
Austin, TX: -12.2%
San Antonio, TX: -9.4%
Dallas, TX: -8.4%
Houston, TX: -4.5%
Source: Realtor.com
Regional Housing Market Insights & Predictions
Every region in Texas is unique and the housing market isn’t the same across each region. Urban areas continue to be hotspots for growth, driven by job opportunities and a thriving cultural scene. In contrast, rural areas offer a more laid-back lifestyle, often attracting folks looking for some peace and quiet. The tale of two markets is evident: the fast-paced urban sprawl versus the steady, serene rural areas. Let’s explore the four largest cities in Texas to better understand their housing markets.
Greater Houston-Area
Houston’s economic backbone is dominated by three industries: energy, healthcare, and aerospace. When these industries are booming, they make the Houston-area more appealing to potential employees.
Houston Housing Trend: Continued Growth - There’s been consistent growth in the Houston-area due to a bustling market. Suburban areas like Sugar Land and The Woodlands offer family-friendly environments while Downtown Houston’s urban revival attracts young professionals.
Houston Housing Forecast: Steady Growth - Oil price fluctuations can be a rodeo ride for the local economy. The housing market will also see change and inconsistency tied to oil prices, which could feed into the projected decline in home prices of 4.5%.
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex
With a diverse economy thriving in the technology, finance, and defense industries, the Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex is a very attractive mix of something old, something new, something urban, and something suburban - all anchored by a strong job market.
DFW Housing Trend: Booming - A mix of luxurious urban living and sprawling suburban estates offer a “something for everyone” feel but with a steep price tag. Areas like Plano and Frisco continue to boom with new developments.
DFW Housing Forecast: HOT! - The job market and influx of new residents and transplants make the Dallas-Fort Worth area THE place to be in 2024. The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market is expected to be hot and a little more affordable with property prices expected to decrease by 8.4%!
Greater-Austin
The Greater Austin area is considered the tech hub of Texas with Silicon Hills leading the way. Tech companies in Austin help create a very vibrant and attractive startup scene and they dominate the economy.
Austin Housing Trend: Expensive - The demand for housing in Austin dropped towards the latter half of 2023 which coincided with the supply of homes in the area. The Austin housing market isn’t very competitive compared to where it was in 2021 and 2022. The average home sells for roughly 4% below the list price.
Austin Housing Forecast: Cold & More Affordable - The cost of homes is expected to drop 12.2% in the Greater Austin area. This could make homes in Austin more affordable, benefiting potential homebuyers in 2024.
San Antonio
The economy in San Antonio is driven by the military, healthcare, and tourism industries. The last decade brought an influx of businesses that spurred job growth allowing for a very stable economy. The military’s presence in the area positively impacts San Antonio’s housing market by increasing housing demand.
San Antonio Housing Trend: Resilient - Despite San Antonio’s housing market cooling off in 2023, the inventory of available homes steadily increased. The average price of a home shows consistent growth, despite less transactions in the housing market.
San Antonio Housing Forecast:Affordable but Declining - 2024 could be a great year to buy a home in San Antonio, especially with the forecasted 12.2% decline in home prices. However, we could continue to see the average home value fall. Additionally, given the significant cut in new home production last year, there may be a decline in available inventory.
Market Dynamics that Affect the Texas Housing Market
The Texas housing market is as diverse as its population. Young professionals and families are flocking to the suburbs, looking for that perfect balance of city convenience and spacious living. The demand for single-family homes continues to rise, but don’t overlook the growing appetite for condos and apartments, especially among millennials and downsizers.
Each area presents its unique flair and challenges in the real estate market. The metropolitan areas may continue to surge with growth driven by economic prosperity and job creation, while the more rural areas offer a different appeal with their tranquil settings and lower cost of living.
Challenges in the Texas Housing Market
Every cactus has its thorns, and the 2024 market will have its share of challenges. Affordability might tighten its grip in some areas but, in reality, with the anticipated decline of home prices in the major Texas real estate markets, it could make competition as fierce as a bullfight. In addition, with significant decreases in new home developments the availability of new, custom homes is reduced. So far, 2024 is lining up to create the perfect storm with a challenging real estate market for both buyers and sellers with a combination of high mortgage rates, expensive home prices, and lower housing inventories.
Opportunities for the Texas Housing Market
Every challenge brings opportunities. There are some areas in Texas that are positioned to see notable growth in home prices including:
Hereford, TX - expect steady growth starting in the Spring
Jacksonville, TX - home prices are expected to rebound by Winter
Palestine, TX - real estate market is expected to grow around 1.2%
Waco, TX - market recovery may start as early as March
The Texas housing market is still very diverse and real estate markets will be influenced across-the-board by things like the job market; local, state, and federal economies; and local business developments. Still, agents who can navigate these waters with expertise and a bit of wit will find ample opportunities for growth. It’s about turning lemons into lemonade, or in Texan terms, turning brisket into barbecue.
Will the Texas Housing Market Crash?
Be Happy TC’s research doesn’t indicate any state-wide housing market crash in Texas but we do see fluctuations between growth and declines across the state. The Texas housing market remains a land of opportunity filled with potential in some unexpected areas. For real estate agents, staying ahead of the curve with insights and strategic planning is not just good practice, it’s essential for riding the waves of this dynamic market.
